This highlights why both Sir Keir and Kemi have significant reasons to be concerned about Reform UK.

Are the UK’s and Europe’s old political systems beyond repair? Have the legacy parties reached a point where a simple reboot is no longer enough, and a complete “reformat” is inevitable?

The following analysis is based on observable facts. If a significant shift in the political landscape is underway in the UK and across Europe, it deserves to be reported.

Across the Western world, major democratic transformations are unfolding. These changes are evident in the rise of newer — or revitalized — political parties in both the UK and Europe, as well as in the evolving ways political discourse and news are being conducted and disseminated.

Added to this we have the patriotic fervour and wokery rejection sweeping the United States with its now-new President, Donald Trump. This resurgence of national pride has led to significant shifts in cultural and political discourse, with debates intensifying over traditional values, free speech, and the role of progressive ideologies in American society.

The growing appeal of Reform stems from widespread dissatisfaction with the status quo, as voters feel alienated by mainstream parties they perceive as out of touch with their concerns. Reform UK and similar movements have capitalized on issues such as immigration, economic inequality, and national sovereignty, presenting themselves as champions of the “ordinary citizen.” This shift has forced traditional parties to reconsider their strategies, either by adopting tougher stances on key issues or by attempting to discredit these insurgent groups. However, the persistence of these movements suggests that they are more than just a temporary reaction — they represent a deeper realignment in the political landscape, one that challenges conventional ideologies and reshapes the balance of power across Europe.

This current upheaval signals more than just dissatisfaction with the status quo; it reflects a deeper, systemic shift in public sentiment. The traditional Left-Right dichotomy appears increasingly out of sync with the complexities of modern issues — climate change, technological disruption, identity politics, and economic inequality. Voters are no longer content with binary choices that fail to address the nuances of their lived experiences.

The rise of smaller parties, grassroots movements, and independent candidates suggests a fragmentation of political allegiances not seen in decades. Social media has amplified these voices, allowing them to bypass traditional gatekeepers and connect directly with disillusioned voters. This democratization of communication has eroded the dominance of legacy parties, leaving them scrambling to adapt to a rapidly changing political ecosystem.

What remains uncertain is whether this fracturing will lead to sustainable change or merely a temporary period of instability. Will new alliances form, reshaping the political landscape into something more representative of a diverse electorate? Or will the old guard find ways to reassert their influence, co-opting the energy of these movements to maintain their grip on power? The answers to these questions will define the next chapter of British politics

Headlines surfaced just before Christmas when the newly appointed Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, confronted Reform UK over its membership figures. Drawing on the latest data from the Electoral Commission, alongside statements from the parties themselves, I present an analysis of membership trends over the past two years, followed by detailed insights into each of the main political parties.

Expressing support in a poll is one thing; committing financially to join a party and actively backing its efforts to win seats and form the next government is quite another. Below, I examine how four major parties have performed in terms of membership over recent years.

The findings reveal that three of the four major parties are experiencing a decline, while one is significantly outpacing the others.

Party Membership Trends — Reform on the Rise

Labour: 370,450 members as of December 2023, a decrease of 37,000 (-9%) since the end of 2022.

Conservatives: 131,680 members as of November 2024, down by 40,000 (-26%) since 2022.

Liberal Democrats: 86,599 members as of December 2023, a drop of 11,000 (-11%) since the end of 2022.

Reform UK: 181,521 members as of January 18, 2025, a significant increase of 143,500 (+260%) since May 2024.

Mrs Badenoch Confronts Mr Farage Over Membership Numbers — and Fails
On Boxing Day, Kemi Badenoch accused Reform UK of falsifying its membership numbers, making the claim publicly on X (formerly Twitter). Her statement quickly gained public attention. Below is the Conservative leader’s tweet, followed by Nigel Farage’s sharp response.

Nigel Farage responded promptly and decisively, addressing the concerns raised with a clear and assertive stance, leaving no room for ambiguity.

Mrs Badenoch was left embarrassed after Reform granted major national media outlets, including Sky News and the Financial Times, access to its systems. While Reform received a clean bill of health, Mrs Badenoch has yet to issue an apology.

Registered Supporters: This category allows individuals to engage with the party at a lower cost compared to full membership. Registered supporters can participate in leadership elections but do not have the same rights as full members, such as attending conferences or voting in other internal matters.

Over the years, the Labour Party has experienced fluctuations in membership numbers, often influenced by political events, leadership changes, and public perception. While the party historically benefited from strong ties with trade unions, recent trends show a decline in union memberships, which has indirectly impacted the party’s membership base.

Moreover, shifts in political ideologies and the rise of alternative parties have drawn potential members away. The party’s ability to retain and attract members now depends heavily on its policies, leadership, and engagement strategies, especially in an era where political loyalty is increasingly fluid.

2. Affiliated supporters are members of an affiliate (i.e. levy-paying) trade union or another organisation. Their levy for Labour Party affiliate supporter status is deducted from their dues. They are entitled to attend all constituency Labour Party member meetings but can only attend Conference as visitors, and they can vote in leadership and mayoral candidate elections. However, affiliated supporters cannot represent the Party, nor can they vote on the selection of party representatives.

“As of 31 December 2023 the total individual membership of the [Labour] Party was 370,450 (2022: 407,455).”

- Party submission to the Electoral Commission

The Labour Party’s membership decreased by 37,000, which is a 9% decline, over the span of one year.

The Membership of the Conservatives — declining

The Conservative Party does not disclose its membership numbers in submissions to the Electoral Commission. The most recent figure available indicates that the Party had 131,680 members last year, a number revealed during the ballot to elect Kemi Badenoch as party leader in November 2024. Of these, only 95,189 members participated in the vote.

This marks a significant decline from the 172,437 members recorded during Liz Truss’s leadership election in 2022, reflecting a drop of over 40,000 members (26%) in just two years. Comparatively, at the start of the 21st century in 2001, the Party boasted a much larger membership base of 328,000.

**Membership of the LibDems: A Decline**

The Liberal Democrats (LibDems) state on their website that they have “more than 90,000 members.” However, the latest figures submitted to the Electoral Commission, as of the end of December 2023, indicate that there are 86,599 members. It’s important to note that this total includes ‘registered supporters,’ who are not the same as full members..

The LibDems’ membership dropped by 10,900 (11%) in one year.

“As at 31 December 2023 there were 86,599 (2022: 97,493) members and registered supporters of the Party.”

- Party submission to the Electoral Commission

Membership of Reform UK is experiencing significant growth.

As of the current date, the party boasts a remarkable 183,521 members. This membership count is sourced from a live ticker displayed on Reform UK’s official website. The accuracy of this figure has been corroborated by multiple reputable news organizations, including Sky News, which is often seen as critical of Reform UK. This surge in membership indicates increasing interest and support for the party’s platform and initiatives.

Reform UK’s Advance Is Relentless

Regardless of any opinions readers may have about political parties, it is undeniable that Reform UK is experiencing a rapid and relentless rise. This phenomenon is particularly noteworthy in politics, where it typically takes decades for a party to make a significant impact on the electorate.

Reform UK is the only party demonstrating a consistent and significant increase in electoral popularity, and there are no indications that this trend will slow down.

What makes this advancement even more remarkable is that the party has yet to establish a strong presence across the country. Under the new Party Chairman Zia Yusuf, progress has been swift, but they still need to find and staff local constituency offices in approximately one-third of all Parliamentary seats

Regardless of the various opinions surrounding the main political parties and their respective policies, it is clear that Reform UK is making significant strides in attracting new members, far surpassing the establishment parties in this aspect.

Currently, Reform UK operates under a limited company structure, which limits the influence of its members over the party’s decision-making processes. Despite this constraint, there are promising indications that vital changes to this structure are on the horizon. In the meantime, the party’s membership numbers have surged dramatically, with thousands of individuals enthusiastically signing up on Reform UK’s website and paying the annual fee of £25, or just £10 for young people eager to join the movement.

With over four years until the next general election, a considerable amount can transpire in the political landscape. The establishment parties are likely hoping for significant misfortunes or controversies to arise within Reform UK to mitigate its growing influence. Meanwhile, Reform UK remains committed to its established strategies and will continue its push for progress, hoping to maintain and further its momentum in the coming years