The Forecast For The UK's Economy Is Very Good Indeed.

Graham Charles Lear
4 min readNov 25, 2021


Apocalyptic ‘Project Fear’ forecasts are once again upended by UK’s post-Brexit growth.

These are official facts, not the fantasy and fiction on social media.

This year and next, Brexit Britain is set to outperform the EU’s top economies and that of the Eurozone as a whole, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest official forecasts.

Twice each year the IMF publishes its “World Economic Outlook”, showing forecast growth of the World’s economies, amongst other measures.

These are the analysed numbers from the autumn edition and they show readers the positive findings for the United Kingdom.

IMF growth forecasts for the UK vs. the top five EU economies for this year (2021)

  • United Kingdom: 6.76%
  • France: 6.29%
  • Italy: 5.77%
  • Spain: 5.74%
  • Netherlands: 3.77%
  • Germany: 3.05%
  • EU27 average: 5.10%
  • Eurozone: 5.04%

The IMF’s growth forecast for the UK tops the table
and is more than double that of Germany, the EU’s biggest economy

What happened to Project Fear’s apocalyptic forecasts if the British voted to leave the EU?

British voters were told in no uncertain terms by the then Chancellor George Osborne, the then Prime Minister David Cameron, HM Treasury, international organisations such as the IMF, and practically the entire UK ‘Establishment’ that the United Kingdom’s economy would fall off the proverbial cliff if the people voted to leave the EU.

The Project Fear forecasts were not only wrong, but they were also disastrously so.

What about next year (2022), what does the IMF forecast?

IMF growth forecasts for the UK vs. the EU27 and the Eurozone in 2022

  • United Kingdom: 5.01%
  • EU27: 4.44%
  • Eurozone: 4.35%

But didn’t the UK perform very badly last year?


Certain elements of the media were quick to seize on the UK’s drop in GDP last year as a result of the Covid crisis. What they failed to take into account is the difference in the way the UK records GDP in comparison with EU countries.

A key element in the UK’s drop in GDP last year arose because of the way the UK records the health sector as part of its economy. EU countries measure this by expenditure. If millions of medical personnel in the EU are at home on full salaries, GDP is unaffected because the expenditure remains fairly constant.

In the UK, however, the contribution of the health sector to GDP is broadly measured by output, not expenditure. With so many fewer GP appointments, hospital appointments, and operations, this resulted in a large drop in the health sector’s contribution to the overall GDP figure.

Note for economists reading this. I know that this is a simplification of the immensely complex task of measuring GDP, but I have provided a simple summary for people who do not have time to read pages of technical discussion on this subject LOL you should try it sometimes. You overcomplicate things for ordinary people who just want to go to work come home have a pint or two and go to bed.

If you dish it out, you have to learn to suck it up when your dish turns sour

In the run-up to the EU Referendum of 2016, the UK Government and ‘the Establishment’ published and promoted a constant stream of stories and official forecasts of the economic Armageddon that would immediately follow any vote to leave the European Union.

The British people largely took this in their stride. Brexit was always at its heart about independence, sovereignty, and democracy, not economics. This is something that the leaders of the Remain campaign never fully grasped.

Fearful forecasts

Yes, the forecasts of economic doom and gloom undoubtedly swayed many voters to vote to Remain out of fear, but this was not enough to overturn the overwhelming desire of the British people to take back control of their country.

I have never been a fan of economic forecasts as they seldom turn out to be accurate, but perhaps what is sauce for the goose won’t be inappropriate for the gander, in this case.

What is written above is yet one more vindication of the vote to make the United Kingdom an independent, sovereign nation once again. Not only has the UK regained some of its independence, (there is of course more work to be done on this), but the economic figures do not look too shabby either.

For the IMF to forecast UK growth this year being more than double that of the EU’s economic powerhouse Germany will, I hope, be reassuring to millions of British people. Assuming the BBC, Sky News, and ITN ever give this prominence, of course…Which up to now not one of them have even bothered to take a look.

Oh by the way the IMF is and always has been a pro-EU. So it must be Butt clenching time for them to admit what they have, as it goes against the grain.

[ Sources: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook ]



Graham Charles Lear

What is life without a little controversy in it? Quite boring and sterile would be my answer.