The EU plans to become poorer, and this is how they are going to do it. There is dumb and even dumber and then there is the EU.
This analysis shows how the EU plans to become poorer.
They are planning to add six countries, and when the EU do, they will still have fewer people and less GDP than when the UK was a member.
As I predicted last Sunday, the EU Commission officially announced yesterday (17 June 2022) that it was proposing Ukraine to be a “candidate country” to join the EU, along with Moldova. Georgia will follow provided it makes some changes.
Once rubber-stamped by the EU Council — which it will be — this will take the number of official candidate countries to seven. The other five are Turkey, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Albania, and Serbia. As previously reported, Turkey has been a candidate country since 1999 and there is no current prospect of it joining so I have discounted Turkey in this analysis.
What would be the effect on the EU if Ukraine and Moldova were admitted?
The effects on the EU if six of the seven-candidate countries (excl. Turkey) were to join
- EU27 population : 447,007,596
- EU33 population : 502,890,418 (+12.5%)
- EU27 GDP : $17,094.2bn
- EU33 GDP : $17,407.2bn (+1.8%)
How does the “EU33” compare to the EU27 plus the UK, if it rejoined?
In order to give some sense of proportion, I compared the “EU33” with what the “EU28” would look like today, i.e. if the UK were to rejoin before any candidate countries became members.
The EU with the UK compared to the EU with six candidate countries
- EU33 population : 502,890,418 (with six candidate countries added)
- EU28 population: 514,088,830 (i.e. with the UK as a member, no candidate countries added)
- The EU’s population would be 2.2% bigger with the UK than with the six candidate countries
- EU33 GDP : $17,407.2bn (with six candidate countries added)
- EU28 GDP: $20,281.8bn (i.e. with the UK as a member, no candidate countries added)
- The EU’s GDP would be 16.5% bigger with the UK than with the six candidate countries
- Per capita, the EU’s output would be smaller by 12.3% with the candidate countries than with the UK
The ‘EU33’ will still be smaller than the EU28 when the UK was a member
My analysis clearly shows that the EU can add as many small and relatively impoverished nations as it wants, but it will still be smaller than with the United Kingdom as a member. This is true of the total population, total GDP, and GDP per person.
In short, the EU wants to increase the land mass of its empire, further threatening Putin’s Russia, and knows it will become poorer as a result. Talk about being dumb, if being dumb was an Olimpic sport the EU would win Gold every time.
The EU gets dressed up in yellow and blue, but it won’t wash
Yesterday saw the bizarre sight of EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen dressed in a bright yellow suit with a bright blue blouse, making a public announcement. Just look at her
As so often, the statement was written in ‘EU-Speak’ — equivocal and designed to sound as if the EU is doing something. Whilst the recommendation for Ukraine to become a candidate country seems certain (but still subject to conditions), the citizens of Moldova and most certainly Georgia will be left bewildered. I invite readers to read the statement for themselves.
Yesterday, while UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson was in Kjiv talking to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy about further UK military support, the EU Commission’s President was making a flamboyant statement in Brussels about growing its empire.
Certainly, President Zelenskyy was in no doubt who his true friends are, tweeting:
“Many days of this war have proved that Great Britain’s support for Ukraine is firm and resolute. Glad to see our country’s great friend Boris Johnson in Kyiv again.”
I use the word ‘flamboyant’ about the EU Commission President’s statement not for its content, which was obscure, to say the least, but because of its presentation. Perhaps the EU apparatchiks thought that Frau von der Leyen’s new outfit would distract from the EU’s poor performance in supporting Ukraine, compared to that of the United Kingdom.
My report shows that the EU’s desperate attempts at a “UK replacement therapy” will leave it worse off. Bigger in land mass, certainly, but poorer overall. For those looking for the benefits of Brexit, this is yet another one for the records.
[ Sources: World Bank | UN | IMF | President Zelenskyy’s office | №10 | EU Commission ]