When Boris Johnson brought out both chief medical officer Chris Whitty and top science adviser Patrick Vallance to talk to the British people about COVID19 I voiced my concerns at the time as I believed advisers should not be seen by the public in general.
As they were wheeled out day after day to stand on the podium next to the PM or many of the Government Ministers I began to get more concerned, it seemed to me that both of them were enjoying the limelight a little too much. One of them was even given a television slot. Chris Whitley can be seen on many television commercial breaks telling people the Governments advise on how to combat COVID19. The problem is with me at least is the fact that it's actually not Government advice it is his advice and his friends and colleagues advice and the Government from the Prime Minister down to the newest MPs are getting the blame for the wrong advice that is being given out.
Remember that once these British advisers had got an extra 30 billion quid out of the government for the NHS they told Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock health minister that the UK as a whole had to adopt a herd mentality where all but the vulnerable got the virus. That advice was given around the15 March. It meant the government would no longer try to track and trace the contacts of every suspected case, and it would test only people who are admitted to hospitals. In lieu of any major social-distancing measures, Johnson instead offered a suite of soft advice — people with symptoms should stay home; no school trips abroad, people over 70 should avoid cruises. At the time 15 March the UK identified 1,391 cases, Sir Patrick Vallance the U.K.’s chief scientific adviser said this at the time while suppressing the virus through draconian measures might be successful for months when they lift, the virus will return. To avoid the second peak in the winter, Vallance said the U.K. would suppress the virus “but not get rid of it completely,” while focusing on protecting vulnerable groups, such as the elderly. In the meantime, other people would get sick. But since the virus causes milder illness in younger age groups, most would recover and subsequently be immune to the virus. This “herd immunity” would reduce transmission in the event of a winter resurgence. On Sky News, Vallance said that “probably about 60 per cent” of people would need to be infected to achieve herd immunity.
To avoid the second peak in the winter, Vallance said the U.K. would suppress the virus “but not get rid of it completely,” while focusing on protecting vulnerable groups, such as the elderly. In the meantime, other people would get sick. But since the virus causes milder illness in younger age groups, most would recover and subsequently be immune to the virus. This “herd immunity” would reduce transmission in the event of a winter resurgence. On Sky News, Vallance said that “probably about 60 per cent” of people would need to be infected to achieve herd immunity.
A week or so later the Government came out and said we must shut everything down, everyone but essential workers to stay at home
All Governments have to have advisers, in times of crisis, like war, Governments will assemble advisers that have a far better knowledge of war than any PM, Minister, President. They will include Generals and military experts that lecture officers at military colleges. Where terrorism is concerned our security forces like MI5, Police. In anything medical, people like Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance and their team.
Any government who assembled a team of experts would be foolish when given advise not to take it, if they do that why ask in the first place?
Over the last week like most of us, I have seen the governments of both the UK and the US being absolutely lambasted for getting it wrong over this virus. Trump only a few weeks ago was saying, we will be back to normal by Easter. Why would he say something like that? Whatever your views on him he is no fool, a fool does not become the leader of the so-called free world, so what prompted him to say it would all be over by Easter? It could only have been his team of medical experts and why did he suddenly say we are in for a rough ride a few weeks later? The answer is that his team of medical experts had advised him after reviewing data.
Blame the experts, not the government's they can only do what the experts tell them to do.
Italy and its deaths from the virus
Italy has its own advisers to their Government one of them being a Walter Ricciardi, he is the scientific adviser to Italy’s minister of health, and very surprisingly he gave an insight to Italy's deaths and why there are so many deaths.
On the 20 March, he gave an interview to Sarah Newey, GLOBAL HEALTH SECURITY CORRESPONDENT. Prof Ricciardi said that Italy’s death rate may also appear high because of how doctors record fatalities.
“The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.
This means that if you are in a hospital in Italy for any disease and they test you for COVID19 and it comes back positive that is what you die of not the disease but the virus. You can be bought in with a heart attack be tested, die within hours and the death certificate will show you died not from the heart attack but from the virus. Its the reason that out of all of Europe's countrys Italy has the most deaths,14,681 of them all put down to the virus. Spain is next with 10,935 are they doing the same? The UK has 3,294 tomorrow we in the UK will surpass China with mortality rates although I am of the belief that China is not telling the truth. Germany on the other hand only has 1,208 with 89,451 being tested positive people are putting this down to Germany testing more people, however, testing people for it does not stop people dying from it, there is a far better explanation Germany is a country where everything is black and white. They are sticklers for putting down everything right in their records, they pride themselves for doing this. It's why during World War 2 we found exact numbers of the ones they slaughtered in the death camps and the exact amount of gold teeth they pulled along with names of victims for all their faults it's as if they cannot lie. Its why we will find that in Italy, Spain, the UK mortality rates for cancer patients and heart disease patients down next year while in Germany they will be around the same as they were last year.
Perhaps someone can explain why the UK and its medical advisers are taking down these deaths and feeding that data into scientific models that are telling them that the UK is just two weeks away from seeing what Italy is seeing with deaths when they record the deaths wrong?
Our own Office for National Statistics gave an insight to what is going on in the UK when this week their report on mortality rates for this year said No increase in average death rates this year, so far. Just stop and think for one moment. How can this be with an extra 3,605 put down to the virus?
The response from the UK Government to the Coronavirus scare — and the response from governments around the world — has caused massive and detrimental effects on individuals, on societies and on the economies of the world.
Global economies are being trashed, a worldwide recession is inevitable, unemployment will rocket as companies go bust, families and individuals are finding themselves in major financial hardship and misery, lives and relationships are being put under massive pressure with permanent consequences, and civil liberties are being curtailed across the globe.
Unless there is something seriously wrong with the official figures from the United Kingdom on Wednesday some big questions must surely now be asked.
The very least we would have feared and expected was to see a significant uplift in the number of deaths per day and per week. It should be possible to see SOME change. To see no change at all is very odd indeed
The country is on shutdown. Nothing comparable to this has been seen since the Second World War. And yet there is still no sign that this health scare is any different from any of the numerous health scares which have preceded it over the past 30 years. These include SARS, Swine Flu, Foot and Mouth, Mad Cow Disease, Ebola, MERS, and ZIKA.
Things may get very much worse, but right now there is no noticeable change in average deaths per week. I do understand that our NHS staff have to worry about many issues other than the number of people dying each week. Intensive care units, available respirators, protective equipment and many other issues are preoccupying minds across the country.
I also understand that there are time lags in deaths being reported and I have a reasonable idea of many of the other issues surrounding the Coronavirus.
Nevertheless, I must ask the most basic question. If Coronavirus is so bad that it closes down entire countries….
Then why can’t we see any effect whatsoever in the number of deaths in the UK each week?
Sources: Office for National Statistics