Russia allocates three times the proportion of its GDP to defence compared to the UK.
What clever tactics might Sir Keir use to make a memorable impact on Trump during his US visit on Thursday — perhaps quoting some stats, or maybe just gifting him a British tea set with “Made in China” stamped on the bottom?
Starmer is anticipated to increase UK defence spending by a meagre 0.2%, bringing it to 2.5% of GDP, in stark contrast to Putin’s allocation of 7.1%.
Today, February 24, 2025, marks the third anniversary of President Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, a sovereign nation. What was originally planned as a swift four-day military operation to overthrow the Ukrainian government and install a pro-Soviet puppet regime has turned into a prolonged and challenging conflict for the Russian leader.
Meanwhile, President Trump is actively pursuing an end to the war through negotiations with Russia, notably excluding Ukraine, the UK, and the EU from the discussions.
- The Challenge Ahead for Sir Keir: Russia’s Significant Surge in Defense Spending Over the Last Five Years
As Sir Keir prepares to announce plans in Washington on Thursday to increase the UK’s defence spending as a share of GDP (details below), I offer an analysis of the military balance between the UK, the EU, and Russia. This includes a detailed review of the most recent data on Europe’s defence expenditure over the past five years, contrasted with Russia’s substantial investments in its military capabilities.
Defence spending, the UK and Russia, 2019–2024
1.1 Russia now spends 3 times as much as the UK on defence, as a share of GDP
- Russia’s percentage, in 2024: 7.1%
- The UK’s percentage, 2024: 2.3%
1.2 Russia’s % share of GDP spent on defence since just before the war has increased by almost three-quarters
- Russia’s increase in % of the share of GDP on defence: 73.2%
- Over the same time, the UK’s has risen by 4.5%
Russia’s defence spending as a proportion of GDP has grown 16 times faster than that of the UK
1.3 In currency terms, (not adjusted for inflation), Russia’s defence spend has soared by almost 90% since it invaded Ukraine
- UK: 22%
- Russia: 89.5%
2. Starmer’s expected announcement in Washington
British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is visiting Washington on Thursday for talks with President Trump. Originally billed as the first visit by the leader of a western country, we now know that President Macron of France has beaten him to it. Today Macron is in Washington, although quite what he can say or promise to President Trump when the EU Commission effectively controls French security, foreign and trade policy is yet to be seen.
While the exact agenda of Sir Keir Starmer’s discussions remains under wraps, analysts believe the visit underscores the UK’s intent to solidify its post-Brexit role on the global stage. The potential defence spending increase, if confirmed, would signal a commitment to bolstering NATO and deepening military cooperation with key allies, particularly the United States. Such a move could also serve as a counterbalance to growing geopolitical tensions, including challenges posed by Russia and China.
Additionally, trade relations are expected to feature prominently in the talks. With the UK no longer bound by EU trade agreements, there is speculation that Starmer may seek to advance discussions on a bilateral trade deal with the United States. This would not only provide economic benefits but also reinforce the “special relationship” between the two nations, a cornerstone of British foreign policy.
Observers have noted that the timing of this visit is particularly significant, coming as the global political landscape continues to shift. By engaging directly with President Trump, Starmer may aim to position the UK as a proactive and independent partner, capable of addressing shared challenges such as climate change, cybersecurity threats, and global economic stability.
Meanwhile, Macron’s presence in Washington has raised questions about the EU’s broader strategy in dealing with the United States. Some commentators suggest that Macron may be attempting to assert European leadership in transatlantic relations, despite the constraints of EU policy frameworks. This dynamic could add an intriguing layer to Starmer’s visit, as the UK seeks to differentiate itself from its European neighbours in both approach and ambition.
3b. The NATO target of 20% of the 2% to be spent on capital expenditure
The secondary target which is rarely mentioned but which I have often reported on, is that a minimum of 20% of this should be capital expenditure, i.e. military hardware. This is of course vital, as there is little point in having personnel, headquarters, training, etc, for an army, navy, and air force, if they have no guns, ships, or planes with which to go into combat.
Below I show the performance against this 20% capital expenditure target of the EU NATO countries compared to the performance of the UK.
Sir Keir’s visit also provides an opportunity to strengthen diplomatic ties with the United States, a relationship that has faced challenges in recent years. As the UK seeks to redefine its global role post-Brexit, maintaining a strong alliance with Washington is critical. This partnership extends beyond trade and defence; it encompasses shared values, security cooperation, and collaborative efforts on pressing global issues such as climate change and technological innovation.
In the context of global security, the discussions may also touch upon NATO’s evolving role and the need for member states to meet their defence spending commitments. The UK, traditionally viewed as a key player in NATO, must reaffirm its leadership position through tangible actions, particularly in light of growing threats from adversarial states and emerging technologies in warfare.
Domestically, Sir Keir’s handling of this visit and its outcomes will undoubtedly influence his standing as a leader. Demonstrating statesmanship on the international stage could bolster his credibility and provide a contrast to the government’s perceived shortcomings in addressing both foreign and domestic challenges. Securing tangible wins, such as progress on trade or defence agreements, would reinforce his image as a capable alternative for leadership.
Ultimately, while the immediate focus may be on tariffs, trade deals, and defence, the broader implications of this meeting are far-reaching. It is a moment for the UK to assert its priorities, rebuild its global influence, and navigate the complexities of a changing world order. Sir Keir’s ability to capitalize on this opportunity will be closely watched, not just by his domestic audience but by international observers as well.
Will he fluff this chance? I somehow think he will.
