Rejoiners will not like this summary of the findings of a global market report

One of the world’s top market agencies delivers its verdict on the UK versus the Eurozone

Last Wednesday, my report demonstrated the UK’s outperformance of Germany, the top economy in the EU. Today, I expanded my analysis to compare Brexit Britain with the Eurozone, and once again, Brexit Britain emerged as the top performer. I delved into the latest findings of S&P Global, a prominent global credit agency, which is widely followed in the world’s economics and market sectors. Their analysis holds significant influence over global market movements.

There are two major global credit agencies the world’s markets watch: Standard and Poor’s (S&P Global) and Moody’s. I reviewed and summarised the latest findings of S&P Global — one of the world’s most-followed economics and market agencies — about Brexit Britain. Their analysis is very widely read around the world and helps to determine the movements of global markets.

The global verdict on Brexit Britain versus the Eurozone

S&P Global’s report, July 2024

• Business growth is stronger in the UK than in the Eurozone
• Manufacturing is up in the UK, down in the Eurozone
• Production is up in the UK, down in the Eurozone
• The eurozoneeconomy is “near stagnation”, but up in the UK

The all-important PMI Index shows what’s coming

The SP Global PMI Index is considered a reliable indicator of business confidence and future order book. This analysis will focus on the manufacturing sector and compare Brexit Britain with the Eurozone. The choice to focus on manufacturing is due to its significant attention from Remainer-Rejoiners in the UK economy.

Below I focus on manufacturing and show the comparison between Brexit Britain and the Eurozone. I chose manufacturing as it is this sector of the UK’s economy on which so many Remainer-Rejoiners choose to comment.

UK versus the Eurozone — manufacturing indices

1. S&P Global PMI Manufacturing Index, July 2024

EXPLAINER for all indices: Anything above 50 shows growth. Below 50 shows contraction.

• Eurozone: 45.6 (7-month low)
• Brexit Britain: 51.8 (29-month high)

[Source: S&P Global PMI Index, 24 July 2024.]

“New export orders (which include intra-Eurozone trade) fell more quickly than total new business as firms in the Eurozone continued to struggle to secure sales from international clients.”

“New export orders decreased for the twenty-ninth successive month”

• S&P Global, Jul 2024

2. S&P Global Manufacturing Output Index, July 2024

• Eurozone : 45.3 (7-month low)
• Brexit Britain : 54.4 (29-month high)

“The Eurozone manufacturing sector was again a key source of weakness. Production was down markedly in July, and to the largest extent in the year-to-date.”

“Manufacturing output continued to decline at the start of the third quarter, extending the current sequence of contraction to 16 months. Moreover, the pace of reduction was marked, having accelerated to the fastest in 2024 so far.”

• S&P Global, Jul 2024

Below are just some of the other comments in S&P Global’s report

1. The UK

• “New business growth across UK private sector jumps to 15-month high”
• “The UK manufacturing sector is enjoying its strongest spell of growth for over two years, with June seeing output and new order growth sustained at robust rates similar to May’s recent highs”
• “The performance of the domestic market remains a real positive, providing a ripe source of new contract wins”

[Source : S&P Global, 24 Jul 2024.]

2. The Eurozone

• “Eurozone economic recovery fades further in July”
• “Provisional PMI survey data signalled a near-stagnation of the eurozone private sector during July as the currency bloc’s economic recovery continued to wane”
• “New orders fell for the second month running and business confidence dropped to a six-month low, leading firms to halt a spell of hiring which began at the start of 2024”
• “Eurozone manufacturing suffers fresh setback in June as production falls at fastest rate in 2024 to date”
• “Headline measure signalled a solid and accelerated deterioration in the health of the Eurozone’s manufacturing sector”
• “Production was down markedly in July, and to the largest extent in the year-to-date”

[Source : S&P Global, Jul 2024.]

One doesn’t have to look far to find concerning news about the state of the Eurozone. Whether it’s from major economic agencies in the EU or from the global economic institution I mentioned today, the news is unfavourable. While no one is claiming that Brexit Britain’s prospects are bright, they are still much better than those across the Channel. Naturally, this must be considered in the context of the dire forecasts given to the British public before the 2016 vote to leave the EU, which makes the UK’s performance even more impressive.