On Wednesday the Commission showed how it plans to become the EU36 Do Rejoiners understand the economic madness they want to rejoin?
On Wednesday (08 November 2023) the EU Commission published its annual reviews of each of the 10 countries who want to join the EU. One is irrelevant (Turkey) as talks have been stalled for the last five years. The other nine are very keen, however, and none of them will be net contributors to the EU budget.
We have to have a picture of what the newly enlarged EU will ultimately look like. If the Rejoiners had their way and if the UK applied to become a member again, then it is important to know what we would be rejoining.
Firstly, who are “the Candidates”?
Let's start by listing the countries lining up to join the EU
The list of nine realistic ‘Candidates’ to enter what would be ‘the EU36’
Seven official ‘realistic’ Candidates :
- Albania
- Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Moldova
- Montenegro
- North Macedonia
- Serbia
- Ukraine
One official Candidate going nowhere :
- Turkey
Two Potential Candidates:
- Georgia
- Kosovo
[Source: Latest EU official data, released Wed 08 Nov 2023.]
Secondly, what are their chances of becoming members of the EU?
Below I have only summarised some of the major issues which currently prevent any of these countries from becoming members of the EU. There are more, but readers might detect some common themes. The EU Commission talks of each of these countries in positive terms, emphasising the progress they are each making. The reality is that they all have some way to go.
Currently the ‘Candidates’ are not who you might wish to have as neighbours
‘The Magnificent Seven’
Albania
Problem Areas: Corruption, organized crime, freedom of expression, minority issues, rule of law.
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Problem Areas: Corruption, judicial system, economic reforms, freedom of expression.
Moldova
Problem Areas: Corruption, power of oligarchs, judicial reform.
Montenegro
Problem Areas: Corruption, organized crime, justice reform.
North Macedonia
Problem Areas: Corruption, organized crime, public administration.
Serbia
Problem Areas: Way too close to Russia and China, attacks on Kosovo.
Ukraine
Problem Areas: Corruption, power of oligarchs, organised crime, fair treatment of minorities… Oh, and there’s a war going on.
Two Potential Candidates:
Georgia
Problem Areas: Corruption, power of oligarchs, human rights, Russian media interference, electoral problems, over-powerful security services, judicial reform.
Kosovo
Problem Areas: Corruption, judicial reform, government reform, state services, relationship with Serbia.
The EU’s unelected decision-makers
It is worth pointing out that the unelected EU Commission acts as a prosecutor and judge when it comes to deciding which countries can become “Candidate Countries” of the European Union.
The ultimate arbiter is then the EU Council which effectively acts as a jury. They are the ones who decide on the Commission’s recommendations and they must act in unanimity in order for a new country to be allowed to join.
It is the 27 Leaders (and their coalition governments) in the EU Council who are the real hurdle for many of the applicants. The disputes over policies towards Russia and China represent just one area that is causing real conflict politically — even amongst the existing EU27 — but this is the tip of the iceberg. Some EU members also object vehemently to other policies of the Candidate countries. For example, the Bulgarians have recently sent troops in considerable numbers to their border with Serbia. The Candidate countries also have many serious disputes between themselves.
Re-join what, exactly?
When any of the applicants do end up as EU Members, it begs the question of just what sort of political mess will reign in Europe for decades. On top of this, there is the thorny question of freedom of movement. One can only imagine how many millions from these poor countries will exert their new rights to come and live in the UK.
Then there is the question of just how much more per annum the UK would have to contribute to the EU budget each year if the UK were to rejoin. The EU will be paying the Candidate countries many billions every year for years, to pay for the upgrading of their infrastructures. This is a subject we will cover in Part II.
There should be no mistake in readers’ minds. The EU is determined to absorb the nine countries we have listed into their sclerotic political bloc. This will not happen overnight but the process is well underway.
The United Kingdom is well out of this. Another Brexit benefit.
However, let's move on
Do Rejoiners understand the economic madness they want to rejoin?
UK’s GDP is 9 TIMES that of all nine EU ‘accession’ countries COMBINED
The proof that the Commission is driven by ideological zealotry, not by reality
The EU Commission has just issued its ‘report cards’ on the progress that the nine accession countries are making towards becoming EU members.
I now present the conclusive evidence that if the EU27 becomes ‘the EU36’ — as it fully intends to do — then it will become an economic basket case.
I invite all Rejoiners to review the official facts below. These are incontrovertible and demonstrate that the EU is all about ideological zealotry, regardless of any practical economic considerations.
The economies of the nine EU accession countries, compared with what the EU lost — the UK
The figures below show the GDP in 2022 for the United Kingdom versus the GDP of the EU’s nine proposed accession countries. Seven out of the nine are formally ‘EU Candidate Countries’ The other two are in the process of acquiring the same status.
UK GDP versus the GDP of the EU’s nine accession countries
- United Kingdom: $3,070.7 bn
- EU accession countries: $335.5 bn
[Source: World Bank GDP figures for 2022, in USD billions.]
Here is what EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Wednesday
“Enlargement is a vital policy for the European Union. Completing our Union is the call of history, the natural horizon of our Union. Completing our Union also has a strong economic and geopolitical logic.”
- Ursula von der Leyen statement, Wed 08 Nov 2023
The EU Commission President made this statement on the announcement of the 2023 ‘report cards’ for the nine countries vying to become EU members, which the Commission fully supports.
Here’s what happens when all nine have joined
Firstly, as I made clear above, none of the nine accession countries are joining the EU tomorrow. Nevertheless, the illustration below is based on the EU Commission’s declared intentions on Wednesday.
This is an illustration based on the latest figures for GDP and population.
The effect on GDP per capita
If and when these nine countries join, the EU’s population would rise by 64,283,016 (14.3%) to 512,670,888.
Unfortunately, the EU’s GDP would only rise by $335.5bn (2.0%). This would have the following effect on GDP per capita in the EU.
- EU27’s GDP per capita : $37,114
- EU36’s GDP per capita : $33,115 (-10.8%)
[Sources : World Bank | EU Commission | UN population stats.]
For information, the average GDP per capita in the accession countries is just $5,220.
What happens to the Euro?
It is now a condition of joining that countries must adopt the Euro as their currency. The problem is that they must meet the economic criteria for doing this. This is despite the fact — as reported previously — that many of the existing members would not currently pass the test.
When Greece joined the EU the figures were ‘fudged’, and we all know what subsequently happened to Greece’s economy after this. The danger with the new accession countries is that they might suffer the same fate.
Overall, however, the real danger is to the value of the Euro itself. With the Eurozone falling into recession it is in poor shape to cope with yet more debt burdens.
Finally, the Common Agricultural Policy
A massive consumer of the EU budget, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) costs billions. The problem here is that Ukraine’s economy is massively dependent on agriculture, as the recent troubles in getting grain and sunflower oil to the EU and elsewhere since the war have shown.
If Ukraine joins the EU — as the EU Commission wants — then it will consume a significant proportion of the CAP. This in turn will leave a lot less for other countries with a significant agricultural element to their economies, such as France, Italy, and Spain.
I invite readers to look again at the quote from Ursula von der Leyen. These Eurocrats are quasi-religious zealots. Any sane review of the nine candidate countries shows that they have precious little in common with the more developed member countries of the EU27 — either economically or socially.
In the report above we have given just some indications of the serious economic challenges for the EU if it pursues its current policy of enlargement.
None of this seems to matter to the EU Commission, however, as it is driven by political ideology. It might matter more to the EU’s current 448 million citizens when they find out what the effect of absorbing these nine accession countries will be.
One thing should be clear to all British people. Rejoining the EU would involve even greater transfers of the UK’s wealth to countries with whom we have little in common. We wish them well, but why should the British taxpayer fund infrastructure improvement projects in these countries when all the billions donated are branded “Funded by the EU”?
“The United Kingdom is well out of this. Another Brexit benefit.”
