If the UK were doing as badly as Germany the BBC would be as happy as foxes in a hen coop
Exports from the EU’s largest economy are down by 7.5% in one year
Readers may have blinked and missed this on the BBC, so I thought that the latest news from the German Federal Government’s statistics agency may be of interest. German exports are down by 7.5% year-on-year.
Last week Destatis reported German export numbers and they are getting worse. Germany accounts for around 30% of the EU’s total GDP from the 27 member countries, so this is bad news for Brussels.
For the EU it’s going from bad to worse
This comes on top of the news that the German economy shrunk in the last quarter (Jul-Sept) and looks headed for a fully-fledged recession. It is now widely forecast to be the worst performer in the G7 this year.
An indication of the effect of Germany’s woes can be seen in the fact that the entire Eurozone drops in the third quarter of 2023 and is forecast to fall further which I reported on last week
Exports (calendar and seasonally adjusted German exports of goods), September 2023
- €126.5 billion euros
- -2.4% on the previous month
- -7.5% on the same month a year earlier
[Source: Destatis, German federal statistics office.]
In September 2023, German exports were down 2.4% on a calendar and seasonally adjusted basis compared with the previous month. Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that exports had decreased by 7.5% from September 2022.
‘Treasure Island’ to the rescue
Most German exports in September 2023 went to the United States. However, after seasonal and calendar adjustments, exports of goods to the US were down 4.0% compared with August 2023, with the value of exports to the US dropping to €12.8 billion euros. Exports to the People’s Republic of China decreased by 7.3% to €7.7 billion euros.
It was the UK, known as ‘Treasure Island’, that partially sailed to the rescue, with German exports to the United Kingdom rising by 2.3% to €6.3 billion euros. However, imports from the United Kingdom also increased by 5.2% to €3.2 billion euros during the same period, so the balance of payments effect for the Germans was mitigated. I myself helped in this rescue as I bought a top-of-the-range Volkwaggon car worth over 50k
On a purely nominal basis (not adjusted for calendar or seasonal effects), Germany exported goods to the value of €129.2 billion in September 2023. Compared with September 2022, on this basis, exports in September 2023 therefore decreased by 10.5%.
It is not in the UK’s interests to see the EU’s largest economy in trouble like this. And no one is suggesting that it will be plain sailing for the UK’s economy next year. This will certainly not be helped by the Chancellor’s massive 31% hike in corporation tax this year, nor by the Bank of England maintaining excessively high-interest rates.
That said, the reason I produce reports such as this is because I am sure readers can imagine how it would be all over the BBC news if the UK’s exports had fallen like those of Germany.
“Despite Brexit” (as they say), The UK’s sales to the EU have risen by 51.5% to the EU since the Referendum and by 58% to the rest of the world.
Sources: Destatis, Federal German Statistics Office
