I publish the figures and expose the spiralling errors found in the EU’s accounts by its auditors

Rachel Reeves is gearing up to present her much-anticipated first budget in two weeks, and I’ve got the scoop on how much bigger the financial “black hole” would have become if the UK had stayed in the EU. Let’s just say, it would have been big enough to host the next Olympic Games — complete with synchronized swimming and a black hole diving event!

If the UK had stayed in the EU, where Ms Reeves and her cabinet campaigned like they were auditioning for a political talent show, it would have been the EU’s second-largest sugar daddy, contributing to the €569 billion budget for 2021–2023. The UK’s tab would have been around £66 billion, plus some extra “off-budget” EU funds — like those sneaky fees on your phone bill. This amount makes Rachel Reeves’ “£22 billion black hole” look like pocket change, resulting in a funding gap that could swallow a small country whole.

Rachel Reeves “£22bn black hole” is like a small pothole compared to the financial Grand Canyon looming nearby. It’s the kind of gap that makes you wish your wallet came with a parachute!

In today’s presentation, I aim to provide the public with a detailed and accurate analysis based on reports from the European Court of Auditors, the EU’s official auditing body. I’ve spent more time with these financial accounts from the past three years (2021–2023) than I have with my own family — post-Brexit, of course. Each year, the European Court of Auditors releases reports that highlight substantial concerns. It’s like they’re the EU’s version of a concerned parent, always pointing out what needs fixing.

Total numbers from EU’s accounts for 3 years since UK left, 2021–2023

[Sources: European Court of Auditors reports, 2021, 2022, and 2023.]

1. How much would the UK have had to pay in regular budget contributions to the EU?

• Total EU official budget: €568.7bn (approx £490bn GBP)
• Estimated UK contribution: £66.2bn (last 3 years)

This would have made Rachel Reeves’ UK budget funding gap
4 times what she says she is looking at.

EU Financial Overview for 2021–2023 Post-Brexit

2. What would have been the UK’s overall liabilities from membership in the last 3 years?

• Payments into the official EU budget: £66.2bn
• Liability for EU’s post-Covid fund (RRF) budget: £16.5bn
• Liability for EU’s debt: £53.4bn
• Liability for EU’s budget exposure to future obligations: £34.7bn
• Total of UK’s overall exposure to the EU, 2021–2023: £170.7bn

Rachel Reeves budget dilemma if the UK had had to commit £66bn to the EU

If the UK had remained in the European Union, Chancellor Rachel Reeves would have faced a budget deficit of £66 billion. This figure represents the amount the UK would have contributed to the EU budget over the past three years. Had Reeves, along with Sir Keir Starmer and the majority of Labour, LibDem, SNP, and Green MPs, succeeded in their efforts to keep the UK in the EU, these regular contributions would have significantly impacted the country's financial planning.

Facing an extra £170 billion bill from the EU is like discovering your ex’s lawyer found another credit card you forgot about. And yes, this comes on top of the payments from Theresa May’s 'Divorce Bill' and our ongoing contributions to the EU’s mysterious 'off-budget' funds, which we suspect are used for secret cheese and wine parties.

Part of the breakdown of the last 3 years and some of the huge increases

[Sources: European Court of Auditors reports, 2021, 2022, and 2023.]

1. EU’s spending error rate has increased dramatically

• 2021: 3.0%
• 2022: 4.2%
• 2023: 5.6%

In some parts of the EU’s budget, the ECA says the error rate is around 10%. Over the past 3 years, the average rates quoted equate to a total of €24.4bn and UK’s contribution would have been £2.4bn GBP. I explain more about the implications of this in the ‘Observations’ below.

2. EU’s outstanding commitments

• 2021 : € 341.6bn
• 2022 : € 452.8bn
• 2023 : € 543.0bn

Percentage rise over 3 years : 59.0%

The EU’s Escalating Debt Crisis

In the years following the UK’s departure from the European Union, the EU has experienced a significant increase in its debt levels. In 2021, the EU’s debt stood at €236.7 billion. This figure rose to €348.0 billion in 2022, and by 2023, it had reached €458.5 billion. Over this three-year period, the EU’s debt has surged by a remarkable 93.7%, highlighting a growing financial challenge for the region.

- 2021: €204.9 billion — 2022: €248.3 billion — 2023: €298.0 billion This marks a concerning 45.4% rise in the EU’s financial commitments for future obligations.

The European Union’s budget exposure to future financial commitments has experienced a notable escalation over recent years:

• In 2021, the commitments amounted to €204.9 billion.
• By 2022, this figure had risen to €248.3 billion.
• In 2023, the commitments surged to €298.0 billion.

This trend reflects a significant 45.4% increase in the EU’s obligations for future expenditures, highlighting growing financial responsibilities.

The European Union’s budget just got an “Adverse Opinion,” which is basically the financial equivalent of being told, “We need to talk.” Meanwhile, the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) budget received a “Qualified Opinion,” suggesting it might need a bit of therapy. Apparently, system weaknesses and irregular payments are as effective as a chocolate teapot in the COVID-19 recovery mechanism. On top of that, the EU’s rising debt is giving its financial resources a serious case of heartburn. The estimated error level in financial management is so significant and widespread, it might just qualify for its own reality TV show!

The European Union’s Court of Auditors (ECA) has expressed concern regarding the current situation. After a thorough review of both the EU’s official budget and the new post-Covid Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), their response is far from celebratory. Instead of a triumphant “Eureka!”, their findings evoke a more cautious “Yikes!”

the largest democratic vote in British history. On her still-active crowdfunding page, she states, “I have voted and campaigned for a People’s Vote on Brexit, and for the UK to remain in the EU.”

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The Chancellor, who could probably win a gold medal in the Remain Olympics, was also part of the elite squad of MPs who gave the EU referendum result the side-eye, despite it being the biggest democratic shindig in British history. On her still-buzzing crowdfunding page, she humorously notes, “I’ve voted and campaigned for a People’s Vote on Brexit, because apparently, I just can’t get enough of queuing up at polling stations!”

In this context, we need to humorously show Ms. Reeves how the country’s finances might have taken a nosedive had her wish to stay in the EU come true. While she might question MY maths, I have got the EU’s Court of Auditors on speed dial, ready to roll out the evidence like a red carpet. This evidence is a plot twist to her claim of inheriting a “£22bn black hole” in the UK’s finances. Despite MPs and other stakeholders playing detective, neither she nor HM Treasury has produced.

Advocates for the UK rejoining the EU face a few hurdles, like trying to teach a cat to fetch. First off, the costs of EU membership have skyrocketed faster than a teenager’s phone bill, and it’s crucial to face this financial reality with a stiff upper lip. The European Court of Auditors has also raised an eyebrow at the EU Commission’s spending habits, suggesting they might need a lesson in budgeting — perhaps from a thrifty grandma. Moreover, the UK’s financial contributions would now be heftier than before, thanks to its economy flexing its muscles like a bodybuilder at the beach. This means the UK’s slice of the EU budget pie would be bigger than the previous 12.5% — and we all know how much Brits love their pie. Lastly, proponents need to find a way to convince the British public that shouldering the EU’s mounting debts and liabilities is a jolly good idea, perhaps by promising free tea and biscuits for all.

Most company directors would rather face a room full of angry cats than receive such negative feedback from their auditors. An “adverse” opinion is like being told your cooking is terrible, and it’s the fourth time in a row! The Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) is like that friend who always borrows money but never seems to pay it back, cleverly dodging inclusion in the EU’s standard annual budget. Traditionally, the EU wasn’t supposed to borrow money, but hey, rules are like traffic lights in a video game — optional! Getting a “qualified opinion” on a fund that’s only been around for three years and depends on global investor confidence to buy its bonds is about as reassuring as a paper umbrella in a rainstorm.

The auditors did not agree with the Commission's claims that the EU's accounts were completely accurate and free of issues.