FALSE ALARMS. There have been many.
(ANSA) — Venice could find itself underwater within a few decades if current climate trends continue, a top United Nations climatologist said on Friday.
Over the next 30 or so years rainfall in the northern Mediterranean will increase by 10–20% as a result of global warming, said Osvaldo Canziani, deputy head of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Speaking at the presentation of the IPCC’s bleak new report on climate change, the Argentinian expert said that despite efforts to slow down a global rise in sea levels, the situation everywhere was “increasingly critical”.
Referring to Venice, a city built on mud islands in a lagoon at the top of the Adriatic Sea, he said: “The water of the lagoon will continue inexorably to rise. If things carry on like this, Venice is destined to disappear”.
The IPCC groups 2,500 scientists and is the top world authority on climate change. […]
ANSA News Agency, 7 April 2007
Reality Check: Venice not set to disappear underwater
New research led by an Australian government boffin says that Venice is not, in fact, set to disappear underwater in the near future as a result of global warming.
“The survival of Venice and its lagoon is seriously questioned under the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global sea level rise scenarios,” says Dr. Alberto Troccoli of Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO). However, according to new work by Troccoli and colleagues in Italy and the UK, things are actually set to improve for the much-beloved city of canals.
The regular floods which beset Venice today — aka “Acqua Alta”, high water events, not something that residents of the tideless Mediterranean generally expect — are caused by storm surges.
“Possible future changes in storm surge occurrences critical to flooding events remain largely unexplored,” explains Troccoli. “It is important to understand how these events will evolve since a moderate to strong storm surge event is required to cause serious flooding.”
According to the doc and his colleagues’ analysis, the Acqua Alta is actually set to become a less frequent visitor to Venice as the Earth’s climate evolves through the 21st century. The famous piazza of St Mark’s will no longer be so regularly inundated.
“We found that the frequency of extreme storm surge events affecting Venice is projected to decrease by about 30 percent by the end of the 21st century which would leave the pattern of flooding largely unaltered under 21st Century climate simulations,” says Troccoli. […]
THIS IS A GOOD FALSE ALARM.
FALSE ALARM: SEA LEVELS LIKELY TO RISE MUCH FASTER THAN WAS PREDICTED
- Date: 08/06/11
Global warming is causing the Greenland ice cap to disintegrate far faster than anyone predicted. A study of the region’s massive ice sheet warns that sea levels may — as a consequence — rise more dramatically than expected.
Scientists have found that many of the huge glaciers of Greenland are moving at an accelerating rate — dumping twice as much ice into the sea than five years ago — indicating that the ice sheet is undergoing a potentially catastrophic breakup.
The implications of the research are dramatic given Greenland holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by up to 21ft, a disaster scenario that would result in the flooding of some of the world’s major population centers, including all of Britain’s city ports.
Satellite measurements of the entire land mass of Greenland show that the speed at which the glaciers are moving to the sea has increased significantly over the past 10 years with some glaciers moving three times faster than in the mid-1990s.
Scientists believe that computer models of how the Greenland ice sheet will react to global warming have seriously underestimated the threat posed by sea levels that could rise far more quickly than envisaged.
The latest study, presented at the American Association for the Advancement of Science, in St Louis, shows that rather than just melting relatively slowly, the ice sheet is showing all the signs of a mechanical break-up as glaciers slip ever faster into the ocean, aided by the “lubricant” of meltwater forming at their base. […]
The Independent, 17 February 2006
Reality Check: Sea level rise not accelerating
A paper published yesterday in the Journal of Geophysical Research — Oceans, confirms other studies of tide gauge records which show that there has been no statistically significant acceleration in sea level rise over the past 100+ years, in contrast to statements of the IPCC and Al Gore. Sea levels have been rising naturally since the end of the last major ice age 20,000 years ago, and the rate of rising began to decelerate about 8,000 years ago:
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 115, C08013, 15 PP., 2010: Reconstruction of regional mean sea level anomalies from tide gauges using neural networks — Authors: Manfred Wenzel, Jens Schröter
The 20th century regional and global sea level variations are estimated based on long-term tide gauge records. For this, the neural network technique is utilized that connects the coastal sea level with the regional and global mean via a nonlinear empirical relationship. Two major difficulties are overcome this way: the vertical movement of tide gauges over time and the problem of what weighting function to choose for each individual tide gauge record. Neural networks are also used to fill data gaps in the tide gauge records, which is a prerequisite for our analysis technique. A suite of different gap-filling strategies is tested which provides information about the stability and variance of the results. The global mean sea level for the period January 1900 to December 2006 is estimated to rise at a rate of 1.56 ± 0.25 mm/yr which is reasonably consistent with earlier estimates, but we do not find significant acceleration. The regional mean sea level of the single ocean basins show mixed long-term behavior. While most of the basins show a sea level rise of varying strength there is an indication for a mean sea level fall in the southern Indian Ocean. Also for the tropical Indian and the South Atlantic no significant trend can be detected. Nevertheless, the South Atlantic, as well as the tropical Atlantic, are the only basins that show significant acceleration. On shorter timescales, but longer than the annual cycle, the basins sea level are dominated by oscillations with periods of about 50–75 years and of about 25 years. Consequently, we find high (lagged) correlations between the single basins.
Note: The 1.56 mm/yr non-accelerating rate of sea level rise would result in sea levels 6 inches higher than the present in100 years. The oscillations noted in this study correspond to the typical full and half-cycle lengths of the natural Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the natural 60-year climate cycle. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation warm phase has been shown to produce a marked temporary rise in global mean sea levels.
HOW ABOUT THIS ONE?
FALSE ALARM: HURRICANES ARE GETTING STRONGER
- Date: 08/06/11
The number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes worldwide has nearly doubled over the past 35 years, even though the total number of hurricanes has dropped since the 1990s, according to a study by researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The shift occurred as global sea surface temperatures have increased over the same period. The research appears in the September 16 issue of Science.
Peter Webster, a professor at Georgia Tech’s School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, along with NCAR’s Greg Holland and Georgia Tech’s Judith Curry and Hai-Ru Chang, studied the number, duration, and intensity of hurricanes (also known as typhoons or tropical cyclones) that have occurred worldwide from 1970 to 2004. The study was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF), NCAR’s primary sponsor.
“What we found was rather astonishing,” said Webster. “In the 1970s, there was an average of about 10 Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per year globally. Since 1990, the number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes has almost doubled, averaging 18 per year globally.”
Category 4 hurricanes have sustained winds from 131 to 155 miles per hour; Category 5 systems, such as Hurricane Katrina at its peak over the Gulf of Mexico, feature winds of 156 mph or more.
“This long period of sustained intensity change provides an excellent basis for further work to understand and predict the potential responses of tropical cyclones to changing environmental conditions”, said NCAR’s Holland.
“Category 4 and 5 storms are also making up a larger share of the total number of hurricanes,” said Curry, chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech and co-author of the study. “Category 4 and 5 hurricanes made up about 20% of all hurricanes in the 1970s, but over the last decade they accounted for about 35% of these storms.”
The largest increases in the number of intense hurricanes occurred in the North Pacific, Southwest Pacific, and the North and South Indian Oceans, with slightly smaller increases in the North Atlantic Ocean.
All this is happening as sea surface temperatures have risen across the globe between one-half and one degree Fahrenheit, depending on the region, for hurricane seasons since the 1970s.
“Our work is consistent with the concept that there is a relationship between increasing sea surface temperature and hurricane intensity,” said Webster. “However, it’s not a simple relationship. In fact, it’s difficult to explain why the total number of hurricanes and their longevity has decreased during the last decade when sea surface temperatures have risen the most.”
“NCAR is now embarking on a focused series of computer experiments capable of resolving thunderstorms and the details of tropical cyclones,” said Holland. “The results will help explain the observed intensity changes and extend them to realistic climate change scenarios.”
The only region that is experiencing more hurricanes and tropical cyclones overall is the North Atlantic, where they have become more numerous and longer-lasting, especially since 1995. The North Atlantic has averaged eight to nine hurricanes per year in the last decade, compared to six to seven per year before the increase. Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the North Atlantic have increased at an even faster clip: from 16 in the period of 1975–89 to 25 in the period of 1990–2004, a rise of 56%.
A study published in July in the journal Nature came to a similar conclusion. Focusing on North Atlantic and North Pacific hurricanes, Kerry Emanuel (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) found an increase in their duration and power, although his study used a different measurement to determine a storm’s power. […]
Reality Check: Global warming reducing hurricanes in the U.S., the report says
Intensifying one of the hottest debates in science, a new report concludes that global warming is diminishing the number of hurricanes that strike Florida and the rest of the United States.
The study found that the planet’s oceans have been warming for more than a century. No surprise there, but this may be: Those warmer oceans are producing stronger crosswinds that tend to suppress the development and growth of hurricanes, the scientists said.
“We found a gentle decrease in the trend of U.S. landfalling hurricanes as global oceans warmed up,” said Chunzai Wang, an oceanographer and climate scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Some previous studies found that global warming was increasing the number and intensity of hurricanes, a conclusion that supported the conventional wisdom that warmer seas automatically turbocharge hurricane development.
The new study, by Wang and Sang-Ki Lee of the University of Miami, will be published today in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. […]
And the best False Alarm to date is this one from NASA
Arctic Sea Ice Gone in Summer Within Five Years?
Seth Borenstein in Washington
December 12, 2007
This week, after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.”
It's now 2019.
Let's look at the Arctic Ice 2018
GLOBAL WARMING SMACKDOWN: TANKERS TRAPPED IN MIDSUMMER ARCTIC SEA ICE
- Date: 01/07/18
“THE global warming, which there has been so much talk about for such a long time, seems to have receded a little and we are returning to the standards of the 1980s and 1990s…
June 21, 2018
At midsummer, tankers get ice-trapped near Russian Arctic port
Shipping in the Gulf of Ob is paralysed and the situation complicated, icebreaker company Rosatomflot says.
It is late June, but the winter has not abandoned the Gulf of Ob. The shallow bay, which houses two of Russia’s biggest Arctic out-shipment terminals for oil and gas, remains packed with fast ice.
It has created a complicated situation, Rosatomflot says. The state company which manages the Russian nuclear-powered icebreakers, confirms that independent shipping in the area is «paralysed» and that LNG carriers and tankers are stuck.
The shipping companies had expected the Gulf of Ob to be free of ice in the course of June and that icebreaker assistance would not be necessary. They were wrong.
According to Rosatomflot, there appears to be a need for icebreaker services in the area at least until after the first week of July. There are currently two nuclear-powered icebreakers in the Gulf of Ob, the «Taymyr» and the «Vaygach». In addition, there are several smaller tugs and icebreakers working in the waters around the Sabetta port.
According to the icebreaker company, this is the first summer in four years that the Gulf of Ob is packed with this much ice.
«The global warming, which there has been so much talk about for such a long time, seems to have receded a little and we are returning to the standards of the 1980s and 1990s,» says company representative Andrey Smirnov.
Don't believe the lies that Warmegedinists are telling everyone about Climate change. Use your own brain and look for the evidence that they are telling lies. Or do what I have just done, Just wait a few years remembering what the charlatans said years ago and hit them with their own words.