EU’s migrant crisis becomes UK’s ‘small boats’ crisis — again Nigel Farage was correct

Graham Charles Lear
4 min readSep 19, 2023


LAMPEDUSA ISLAND, Italy (AP) — A migrant reception centre in Italy’s southernmost island of Lampedusa

In the Farage Show on GB News, Nigel Farage conducted an interview in which he predicted that millions of migrants would be coming to the EU over the next few years. His interviewee — a freelance journalist from Italy who clearly had different views on the migrant crisis — disagreed.

Mr Farage’s show is the most-watched news and current affairs programme in the 7 pm slot on British television. He outranks the BBC, Sky News and ITN.

Nigel was correct

I decided to LOOK at the official figures from the EU Commission as well as from the Italian Ministry of the Interior. I can reveal that Nigel Farage was right and that in fact, he was conservative in his estimates.

This is going to shock you

From the month after the Referendum until July of this year, with many EU countries yet to report their latest numbers, more than 4.7 million migrants have applied for asylum in the EU. This does not include illegal migrants who entered but did not apply, choosing instead to operate in the ‘black economy’.

Nor does it include the four million Ukrainians who have applied for what the EU refers to as ‘Temporary Protection’.

1. First-time asylum applications to the EU

From July 2016 (post-referendum) to July 2023. Numbers per year of the EU's asylum seekers.

2016/2017 869. 320

2017/2018 1.453.620

2018/2019 2,038. 920

2019/2020 2,568.739

2020/2021 2,998,759

2021/2022 3,961,810

2022/202 3,4684,165

Migrant numbers for Italy this year are now three times those for the whole of 2021

My overnight analysis of the data from the Ministero dell’Interno in Rome shows that illegal migrant numbers entering Italy have just surpassed three times the level they experienced in the whole of 2021.

I can also reveal that last week — in just one week — 14,106 illegal migrants arrived on Italian shores. The majority are young African men.

Here is what Nigel Farage said in his interview last night

He is of course also right to say that all the UK’s illegal boat migrants come from the EU

In the course of Nigel Farage’s segments on this subject, he has frequently alluded to the UK’s boat migrant crisis. In so doing he has mentioned that all of these migrants have come from EU countries. The vast majority now come from France, with the numbers dropping from Belgian shores due to that country’s naval forces intercepting boats.

The UK Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer will be meeting President Emmanuel Macron in Paris today to discuss a closer alignment of the UK with the EU if a Labour government is elected. It is not known whether he will raise the subject of France’s refusal to take back its illegal migrants.

An indelicate topic for some

For many years the subject of immigration — legal or illegal — was so delicate it was rarely discussed in ‘polite society’. In areas of North London, where many of the ‘elites’ reside, the subject was avoided altogether, except perhaps to castigate the “racists, xenophobes, and bigots” who raised concerns about it.

Now this subject has become mainstream. I have has always reported on the topic, with research using official data from the EU, the UK Home Office, and sometimes from the national statistics agencies of certain countries such as Italy and Germany amongst others.

In his broadcast yesterday evening Nigel Farage continued his long-standing opposition to the increasing problem of immigration on a scale that has been becoming unprecedented.

And it is no use Rejoiners saying that if we were still in the EU the Dublin agreement would kick in as that narrative has proven to be false. EU countrys are now closing their borders to these so-called asylum seekers and are sending them back to the EU country they came from and EU countries are now refusing to take back those who are now in other EU countrys.

I leave it to readers to decide their views on this. However the facts are what they are, and they support Mr Farage’s assertions last night.

Say what you will about Farage and I make it quite plain here and now that he is not my favourite person, but when it comes to actual facts about many problems facing both the EU and the UK he is without a doubt right every time. Sometimes it pays to be a one-trick pony like Farage is, as he concentrates on one topic only and when you do that you become quite the expert on the subject

Sources: EU Commission |



Graham Charles Lear

What is life without a little controversy in it? Quite boring and sterile would be my answer.