Graham Charles Lear
7 min readAug 29, 2017


EU Britains leaving like it or lump it thats what we are doing.

Much has been said about the UK leaving the EU once we had the referendum and before we had it. In the run up to the referendum the remain side had Project Fear that told lie after lie about what would happen to the UK if we voted to come out of the EU. Its worth reminding people what Project Fear said

David Cameron: “The job you do, the home you live in are at risk. The shock to our economy after leaving Europe would tip the country into recession.”

George Osborne: “A vote to leave would tip our economy into year-long recession with at least 500,000 UK jobs lost”

Treasury: “UK economy would fall into recession”, predicted 2016 Q3 growth between -0.1% and -1%

IMF: “Brexit would trigger recession”, predicted -0.3% GDP for Q3

Bank of England: Mark Carney said “It would be likely to have a negative impact in the short term… I certainly think that would increase the risk of recession.”

OECD: Short term impact of -1.25% GDP

Lets look at what has happened to the lies of Project Fear.


In a joint opinion piece for the Telegraph before the Brexit vote, the pair predicted an economic calamity if Britain opted to leave the EU. Mr Cameron warned Brexit would “put a bomb” under the UK economy, whilst Mr Osborne claimed leaving Brussels would cost each family £4,300 a year.

CLAIM: “Economic uncertainty means businesses would reduce investment and cut jobs in the short term, which would mean households spending less too. A vote to Leave is a vote for recession. Do we really want that DIY recession?”

REALITY: As previously noted the UK will not enter recession — classified as two quarters of negative growth — this year. The IMF has predicted that the UK economy will continue to grow next year too, by around 1.1 per cent. Consumer spending soared in July, up 1.6 per cent on the year before. Consumer confidence also rose in August, according to a survey by GfK.


In a now infamous report, which was heavily influenced by fanatical Remainer George Osborne, mandarins at the Treasury predicted economic meltdown within hours of a Brexit vote. In the end the document, published in May, backfired spectacularly and only served to seriously dent public confidence in the impartiality of the civil service.

CLAIM: “A vote to leave would represent an immediate and profound shock to our economy. That shock would push our economy into a recession and lead to an increase in unemployment of around 500,000, GDP would be 3.6% smaller, average real wages would be lower, inflation higher, sterling weaker, house prices would be hit and public borrowing would rise compared with a vote to remain.”

The Treasury predicted that GDP would contract by between -0.1 per cent and minus one per cent in quarter three in the event of a Brexit vote.

REALITY: The economy actually grew by 0.5 per cent in quarter three, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Almost all leading economists, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), say the UK will comfortably avoid recession this year and is likely to be the fastest growing G7 nation.

From June to August an extra 106,000 people were added to the work force, according to the ONS. Inflation rose by just one per cent in September, with the rise being put down to rising fuel bills. Sterling has indeed tumbled — by nearly 18 per cent against the dollar since the Brexit vote. The housing market has, however, defied predictions with demand for homes at the same level as before the referendum.

Next comes the IMF

The International Monetary Fund controversially waded into the Brexit debate when its leader, Christine Lagarde, warned in May that the implications of Brexit would range from “pretty bad to very, very bad.” Before the referendum it predicted that GDP could fall by -0.1 per cent to -0.3 per cent from quarter three of this year in the event of a Brexit vote, rising to -5.6 per cent by 2019.

CLAIM: “The likelihood is therefore that output and employment would be lower should the UK leave the EU than should it remain. In the short run, the uncertainty generated by navigating a complicated and untested exit process could be damaging for investment, consumption, and employment; the exchange rate could act as a buffer, but not by enough to offset the negative effects on demand and output.”

REALITY: The IMF has admitted it got its forecast badly wrong and has now significantly changed its tune. It now says Britain will be the fastest growing G7 economy this year and will continue to expand next year. Whilst investment into the UK took an initial hit in and around the referendum date, commentators say the recent pledge by Nissan to keep production in the UK shows the country will continue to attract businesses.

Then comes the BANK OF ENGLAND

Bank of England governor Mark Carney was savagely criticised after he made an unprecedented intervention in politics to warn people about the impacts of a Brexit vote. Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg said the supposedly neutral Canadian was compromised and should quit, implying he had become part of the establishment Project Fear campaign.

CLAIMS: “We would expect material slowing in growth, a notable rise in inflation, a challenging trade-off. There’s a range of possible scenarios around those directions, which could possibly include a technical recession — could possibly include that.”

REALITY: The Bank did not make an official forecast about the impact of Brexit, but did release a note warning that leaving the EU could plunge the UK into recession, which has not happened. Mr Carney has since taken a more upbeat tone, saying that “most countries” want to trade with Britain and Brexit presents a “very large” opportunity.

Then last but not least OECD

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) was yet another institution to present a doom-filled assessment of Britain’s economic prospects after voting to leave the EU. It predicted catastrophic effects straight after the referendum in the event of a Brexit vote which would cost families £2,200 a year.

CLAIM: “The immediate consequence of a ‘leave’ vote would be greater uncertainty, and a significant impact on growth. Brexit would generate a large negative shock to the UK economy, which would spillover to other European countries. UK GDP growth would be reduced by 0.5 percentage point in both 2017 and 2018. By 2020, real GDP would be more than three per cent below the level it would otherwise have been in the absence of Brexit, equivalent to a cost of £2,200 per household.”

REALITY: The OECD is yet another major organisation to have performed a humiliating U-turn on its Brexit prediction. Last month it actually revised its growth forecast for this year up to 1.8 per cent, and it is also now predicting growth of one per cent next year rather than a recession.

We see all this in black and white and still the remainers still peddle the lies. They are wanting another referendum. How very quaint that is because that is the way of the EU and their form of Democracy We have seen it so many times from them. In every EU country where there has been a Referendum that went against what the EU wanted they told the country to go back and have another and another until the people voted for what the EU wanted.

But actualy if the UK did have another Referendum both the EU and the main Remainers would get the shock of their lives because people living in the UK who voted to remain have now seen how shady and uncompromising the EU are. They would without a shadow of doubt in another Referendum vote to leave.

They see now that the EU want at least £120 billion off the UK before they even begin to talk about any Trade Deals. Which to be quite honest when you delve into it is 2 years money that they get from EU involvement in the UK.

First any country outside the EU has to pay a tariff to the EU to trade with any country in any of the 28 countrys in the EU. That works out at when totted up at £50 billion from our share of countrys trading with the UK. Then we have the £10 billion membership fee that we pay each year. That works out at £60 billion a year that the EU loses the moment we leave. Now were are they going to get that kind of money from? What we are seeing is the EU giving themselves at least 2 years grace and favor at our expense to come up with a plane of some sort so that they do not lose out on £60 billion a year.



Graham Charles Lear

What is life without a little controversy in it? Quite boring and sterile would be my answer.