Coronavirus in the UK, the EU, and the World.

Graham Charles Lear
5 min readMar 5, 2020


I present some basic information for readers to be able to put the Coronavirus into context, using official figures as ever. In this case, I have reviewed :

  1. Information from the World Health Organisation (WHO) on flu-type viruses
  2. Studies by the United States Center for Disease Control and Prevention (US-CDC)
  3. Data reported by the UK and the other WHO Member States under the International Health Regulations (IHR)
  4. Coronavirus action plan — UK Dept of Health 03 Mar 2020
  5. Information on the Coronavirus from the EU Commission
  6. Data and reports from the European [EU — ed.] Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC)
  7. ECDC/WHO European weekly influenza updates

What are the symptoms of this ’flu-like virus?

“The main symptoms of COVID-19 are a cough, a high temperature and,
in severe cases, shortness of breath”

- Coronavirus action plan — UK Dept of Health 03 Mar 2020

This sounds rather like ’flu…. Is it?

Winter ’flu vs the Coronavirus (COVID-19)


  1. Up to 650,000 people worldwide die each year due to seasonal winter ’flu

2. That’s according to the WHO and studies from the US Center for Disease Control

In the charts below, I have used a conservative figure of 500,000 winter ’flu deaths per year as a comparison against the Coronavirus information, to give a perspective for ordinary readers.


  • On 31 Dec 2019, the Chinese alerted the WHO to a virus outbreak in Wuhan
  • On 30 Jan 2020, the WHO declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern”
  • At that point, 170 people had died of the Coronavirus — worldwide

Where are we now?

  1. Since the start of this year, 86,000 people (approx) will have died from seasonal winter ’flu

2. Since the start of this year, 3,199 people in the entire world have died of the Coronavirus

Coronavirus v Winter Flu

Deaths in 9 weeks since the start of 2020

Deaths from the Coronavirus 3,199.

Deaths anticipated from the normal flu virus 86, 538

The number of new Coronavirus cases peaked on 13 Feb
and has fallen dramatically since then.

OK now for some European facts

Having researched the facts surrounding the Coronavirus in the EU. What follows is correct as of 03.00 pm Thursday 05 March 2020 (this afternoon).

  • 4250 cases of Coronavirus have been reported in the EU27
  • There have been 113 deaths in a population of 443 million
  • 77% of the cases are in one country: Italy
  • Over 96% were in four countries: Italy, France, Germany and Spain

Now for a little known fact concerning the EU.

The EU health agency was ready to “big up” winter ‘flu, then Coronavirus came along

Just 13 days before the Chinese first reported the existence of the Coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, the EU produced a report on winter ‘flu. Below is the headline and quote from the news release from the European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC) in association with the World Health Organization.


“2019 Seasonal influenza assessment: currently dominating viruses
point at the possible heavy impact on the elderly and healthcare systems”

Top-level extract:

“The first virus detections for the 2019/2020 season indicate co-circulation of influenza types A (71%) and B (29%) viruses in the WHO European Region. This is a mix which potentially could result in high mortality in elderly patients and a heavy burden on healthcare services warns the European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC) and World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for Europe in a joint assessment issued today.”

“Out of all infectious diseases, seasonal influenza is the one associated with the highest mortality in Europe,” said Pasi Penttinen, Head of ECDC influenza and respiratory viruses disease programme.

When will Remainers EVER give up?

Today in the Daily Telegraph, an article was published which was written by three obvious Europhiles, claiming that the Government’s Brexit policies were preventing the UK from cooperating with the EU27 countries on the Coronavirus

To the best of my knowledge, the UK Government has not proposed any policy which would prevent the EU27 from cooperating with the UK on health issues. Why would any government propose anything which would put citizens’ lives in danger — either in the UK or in neighbouring countries?

If the EU wishes to behave in this way, then they will have to answer to the court of world opinion. I am quite sure that the UK will never act in this way.

For an individual to catch any virus or develop any serious illness is, of course, terrible on a personal level, especially if their immune system is compromised or if they are elderly. I have personal experience of these scenarios, as a great many readers do.

That said, I felt it only right had to put out a public service article stating the bald facts. I am not a doctor nor an epidemiologist. however, I have a lot of experience in observing how quangos in the EU and around the world have started to act as if they can define the news agenda, rather than simply providing facts on it. We all constantly observe these organisations growing and spreading their influence as much as they can. More funding usually follows as we see in Climate Change.

Humankind mass extinction events in the last 40 years

Humankind has had many ‘lucky escapes’ in the last few decades. We have all had to face mass extinction several times. Here are some of those ‘emergencies’:-

HIV/Aids in the 1980s

Mad Cow Disease in the 1990s

SARS in 2002

Avian (bird) Flu in 2005

None of the above came anywhere close to fulfilling the alarmist predictions from the WHO and other global bodies such as the UN.

Just to take the last two examples above, SARS caused precisely 0 (zero) deaths, according to the Department of Health in their report on Tuesday. Avian flu was predicted to cause between 5 million — 150 million deaths. The final total was 262 deaths — WORLDWIDE

The simple fact is that this Coronavirus is a type of ’cold. Since the start of the year when the Chinese alerted the WHO in Geneva, it has killed 3199 people worldwide. Deeply tragic for the loved ones of those people, but it must be pointed out that this is only a tiny fraction of ’flu deaths in any normal year at this point.

What on earth is going on here?

I can find no evidence whatsoever that this virus is any worse than the usual winter ’flu viruses.

I do understand that there are still many unknowns — in particular, the incubation periods and mortality rates of this strand of the ’cold virus — but I will stick my necks out right now.

I am deeply concerned that this is yet another overblown Project Fear story

It will make a vast amount of money for some people
If this ‘crisis’ costs unnecessary billions to UK citizens, who will be held responsible?
Who will lose their jobs if this all turns out to be a gross exaggeration?

[ Sources: World Health Organisation | UK Department of Health | US Center for Disease Control | European (EU) Centre for Disease Control and Prevention | British Medical Journal |



Graham Charles Lear

What is life without a little controversy in it? Quite boring and sterile would be my answer.