Bullish Brexit Britain bounces back with 7.5% jump in GDP

Graham Charles Lear
6 min readFeb 12, 2022

I make no apology for showing the UK draped in the colours of our flag.

No other flag other than the respective flags of England, Wales and Scotland Northern Ireland should be shown. Especially this one covering these country's

Rejoiners hate this news😁

They will do their best to deny it. It is why I show the links so they don't have any wriggle room😁

Thanks to Omicron Quarter 4 GDP finished fairly flat — it’s time to release the hounds and use Brexit to bound ahead of the pack

The latest economic figures from the Office of National Statistics are out and there is much to cheer about. Nevertheless, this must be coupled with a cold shower to remind us that much more has to be done for the country to fully recover. I report on the following data below.

Economist Julian Jessop commented:

“The claim that the UK was the fastest growing G7 economy in 2021 is factually correct, as is the claim that independent forecasters (including the IMF) expect the UK to repeat this performance in 2022.

We can argue about the significance of these claims, but both are true.”

“The UK economy did grow much more quickly than expected in 2021: the average of independent forecasts for growth at the start of last year was only 4.5%, and this consensus presumably did take account of the slump in 2020… a Financial Times survey of nearly 100 economists, published in January 2021, revealed that:

”‘Most of them expect the size of the economy not to return to pre-pandemic levels until the third quarter of 2022, despite the expectation of a strong consumer-led rebound from the rollout of the coronavirus vaccine. Increased unemployment, bankruptcies and the impact of Brexit are expected to limit the pace of the recovery.’

“It therefore seems a bit rich for some economists to dismiss the rapid growth in 2021 as a ‘dead cat bounce’ when it was much better than the lacklustre recovery they had predicted.”

Economist Julian Jessop, Capx, Friday 11 February 2022

UK 7.5

France 7.0

Italy 6.5

USA 5.75

Canada 5.75

Germany 2.70

Japan 1.5

A strong recovery in the UK’s first Brexit year

The UK’s GDP increased by an estimated 7.5% in 2021, following a 9.4% fall in 2020. This recovery was ahead of the world’s other leading world economies.

This was despite a fairly flat fourth-quarter delivering only 1.0% growth — with a big impact caused by Omicron fears and restrictions dampening economic activity compared to the same quarter in 2020 which enjoyed looser restrictions until Christmas itself.

UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 1.0% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2021, following a downwardly revised 1.0% increase in Quarter 3 (July to Sept).

No room for complacency

Complacency cannot be allowed when it is considered that, according to the ONS, “in output terms, the largest contributors to this quarterly increase were from human health and social work activities driven by increased GP visits at the start of the quarter, and a large increase in coronavirus (COVID-19) testing and tracing activities and the extension of the vaccination programme.”

In net trade, excluding non-monetary gold, household consumption made the largest positive contribution to growth — reflecting the run-up to the Christmas festivities.

The level of quarterly GDP in Quarter 4 2021 is now 0.4% below its pre-coronavirus level (Quarter 4 2019). Monthly estimates published by the ONS yesterday showed GDP fell by 0.2% in the quarter’s final month of December 2021 but for all that has achieved its pre-coronavirus level (February 2020).

There is good news and bad news following the release of the latest ONS data about the UK’s economic performance. The good news is considerable. It’s not just that the UK had the best performance of the G7 (which is a great achievement in itself) because this is tempered by the fact the UK also had the worst GDP crash of the G7 in the pandemic — it’s that the anti-Brexit Blobers (led into battle by the Financial Times) thought it would not be until Autumn this year that we would be where we are now. Take that, Kerpow!

Our Omicron Christmas

There is also good news that can be found even in the rather flat last quarterly figure and poor December figure when one takes account of how the impact of the scare that was put out by the arrival of Omicron. It didn’t need a lockdown for families and businesses to cancel their arrangements for parties, lunches and dinners — they cancelled them themselves so that they might not contract the virus and have to miss Christmas get-togethers with their families. It was a self-imposed lockdown that hit the hospitality sector hard at its most lucrative time of the year. All things being well the final quarter of this year should see a healthy level of growth.

And all of that is, let’s be honest — despite Brexit — because while we have been going through the long drawn out adjustment to Brexit we have not yet fully realised the benefits of the opportunities that lay before us. What is being achieved now is rather like having a hand tied behind our backs!

Our resolve must remain strong

It has also been achieved while our own self-confidence as a country might have been sapped, might have been destroyed as the fifth columnists among us that wish to transfer our independence back to unelected commissars in Brussels have constantly done our country down.

The bad news is not so much what’s in the data as what’s not in it — and what can’t be. We know of the coming threat of inflation which is not the worst in the G7 (it’s worse in the US and Germany) which is in part due to the QE used for the pandemic response — but more important is that hand of ours still tied behind our backs. We need to untie it — instead, the Government wishes to saddle the country with more taxes rather than go for growth by cutting marginal rates and finding deregulation.

Brexit gives this country a huge opportunity. It is at times like these when we really need growth to help the poorest in society that we can ‘blow the bl**dy doors off’. What is the Government waiting for? That Bulldog spirit is needed. Release the hounds!

However, there is also something else that has been missed by most people and it concerns Scotland and Wales who both have governments SNP and Labour that still want to align with the EU. Both have locked down their country’s before Westminster ordered the lockdowns of England. Both were very quick to do that, and both at Christmas 2021 refused to open up their respective countries while England was open for business Scotland and Wales were issuing threats to their citizens that both countries were still closed and any infringement would result in police action against them. Just think how much that cost the UK economy.

[ Sources: UK Office for National Statistics | OECD | Julian Jessop, Capx]

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Graham Charles Lear

What is life without a little controversy in it? Quite boring and sterile would be my answer.