BoE, OBR and BBC were wrong again, as the UK did NOT enter a recession in the final quarter of 2022

Graham Charles Lear
3 min readMar 17, 2024

Since Brexit, the UK has outperformed other major economies and busted Rejoiner myths

Yet again Brexit Britain’s economy grew in 2022 — by 4.0%, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) And yet again Brexit Britain beat all the other G7 countries — for the second year running.

Once again the growth forecasts by most economists, the Bank of England, and the Office for Budget Responsibility were confounded by the actual results in the final quarter of 2022. On Friday (10 Feb 2023) the Office for National Statistics released the latest figures on economic growth and below I provide a Brexit summary.

Brexit Britain defies gloom-mongers and beats the rest of the G7 countries again

Since the UK formally left the European Union, the UK’s economy has done the precise opposite of what was threatened by the Remain campaigns and by the ‘doom ’n’ gloom forecasters in government bodies.

Not only that, but Brexit Britain has come out ahead of the other G7 countries.

Brexit Britain’s economic growth compared with the rest of the G7

  • United Kingdom: 4.0%
  • Italy: 3.9%
  • Canada: 3.6%
  • France: 2.6%
  • United States: 2.1%
  • Germany: 1.9%
  • Japan: Yet to report, but will be lower than the UK

[Source: Office for National Statistics, Q4 2022 report, released 10 Feb 2023.]

And what was the BBC’s reaction?

Inevitably the BBC chose not to look on the bright side of life. Their headline was :

“UK economy avoids recession but not out of woods — Hunt”

First paragraph:

“The UK narrowly avoided falling into recession in 2022, new figures show, after the economy saw zero growth between October and December.”

If the BBC had bothered to interrogate the actual data as I did, instead of parroting the ONS’s press release, they would have found that in Q4 the economy grew by 0.41% compared with Q4 2021. Only marginal growth, admittedly, but not “zero”.

When it comes to international comparisons, the BBC starts in typical fashion

“A glance at the economic league table shows the UK is an economic laggard compared with the rest of the G7 club of rich economies.”

Readers will have to scroll down to the 23rd paragraph of the BBC’s report before coming across one solitary sentence :

”That [growth figure for 2022] was the biggest increase of all G7 nations for last year.”

UK’s economy even grew in December — despite all the strikes

It seems clear that the UK’s GDP would have risen more, had it not been for the waves of strikes hitting the country over recent months. These affected output in those sectors as well as impacting the economy as a whole. As the ONS says

“Within the transport and storage sub-sector there were falls from postal and courier activities as well as rail transport, as both industries saw strikes taking place across the fourth quarter. While the direct impact of the strikes in these industries can be seen in the scale of the falls, we are not able to isolate the impact of these strikes from other factors across the wider economy. However, there was anecdotal evidence to suggest this industrial action had an impact across a wide range of industries.”

Despite this, Brexit Britain’s economy still managed to grow in the final quarter, albeit by only a small amount. And it grew faster than the rest of the G7 last year.

There is no doubt that the UK’s economic position is fragile, as it is with most developed countries.

Nevertheless, a glance at the international comparison table we have produced above shows that the dire predictions from the Remainer-Rejoiners of an economic Armageddon, forecast to start immediately after any Leave vote in 2016, has not remotely come to pass.

I would suggest that the Remainer-Rejoiners cannot simply deflect onto other subjects, nor try to quote yet more ‘forecasts’. The reason they prefer forecasts, of course, is because these are usually negative when it comes to Brexit Britain. They prefer not to talk about actual results, as I do because these continually ridicule their position.

Sources: Office for National Statistics | BBC ]

--

--

Graham Charles Lear

What is life without a little controversy in it? Quite boring and sterile would be my answer.