Almost 1/3rd of Commons unseated if only 3,000 voters per constituency switch their votes

Graham Charles Lear
5 min readJan 27, 2019


Which MPs are most at risk of losing their jobs?

A brief look at how easily many MPs could be unseated

We look at the majorities of MPs from the 2017 General Election, and ask how many of them could lose their jobs. Specifically, we look at how many are vulnerable to a tactical vote for the second-place candidate at the next election.

The vulnerability of MPs’ jobs

80 MPs could be unseated if under 1,000 voters switched at the next general election

Over 200 MPs could be unseated if just 3,000 voters switched votes in their constituencies

Cabinet ministers and shadow ministers are in the 50 most vulnerable seats

Many readers are outraged by the conduct of their MPs over Brexit. They wish them to obey the instruction of the electorate in the EU Referendum and execute a clean Brexit on 29 March — with or without any Withdrawal Agreement.

The principle we are exploring is simple. How many people would need to switch votes to the second-most-popular candidate, all other things being equal?

A quick bit of maths — Why is switching my vote worth double?

If you previously voted for your MP and you abstain at the next election, your MP’s majority declines by one vote.

However, if you vote for the 2nd placed candidate, your MP’s majority declines by two. He/she receives one less vote but the other candidate increases by one.

The net effect is that your MP’s majority goes down by two votes.

Naturally, I know some of the arguments against this approach and that this initial analysis is simplistic. Here are the three most common questions that get asked, and the answers.

Q: My MP’s a Remainer. So is the 2nd place candidate. I’d be no better off.

A: Your MP is the one in power who can vote in Parliament. They can be influenced by the threat of losing their job. They can be told that if they won’t listen, then you might as well have the other person. In other words, you are applying pressure where it’s meaningful, and where it can affect the delivery of Brexit.

Q: The 2nd place candidate is [Con/Lab/LibDem/SNP/UKIP]. I could never vote for someone from that party.

A: Many people would agree with you. After all, politics isn’t only about Brexit. However it is about democracy — or should be — and you might feel that a clear message needs to be sent to your MP that they must respect democracy, which means respecting the decision of the British people in 2016. If we allow a total disregard for democracy to become entrenched, how long before your vote is meaningless anyway?

Q: My MP’s majority is so large it’s weighed, not counted. What’s the point?

A: There are two answers to this. The first is that all MPs must feel the weight of public opinion about Brexit. The Remain groups have been very well-funded, and very active in letter-writing for the last two years. MPs now need to hear that the majority want Brexit delivered. This can affect MPs’ decisions at the margins. It can make them less likely to advocate extreme positions, such as taking a clean World Trade Brexit off the table.

The second answer is that large majorities have been overturned before. In the 2017 General Election, the top ten majorities overturned ranged from 9,798 to a whopping 14,339. Imagine what could be done by concerted action?

The Most Vulnerable MPs

Below are the top 35 most vulnerable MPs to switched votes at the next election, followed by links to the tables down to the top 245. This is over two-thirds of the House of Commons.

Ordinary people are now starting to make their voices heard.

Maybe you could spare ten minutes to send a letter to your MP today?

How do you find your MP, how easy is it?

Well, follow this guide. It will show you all your local counselors. Your MPs, your MEPs and even the House of Lords. All you have to do is put in your postcode the follow instructions.

It even gives you a template to write to your MP

So what are you waiting for? Show them the power you have over them

There is a saying, the pen is mightier than the sword. It is in this case because all of you have the power to get rid of your MP if he does not do as he or she is told. One thing we know about MPs is that they love the power those two letters M — P gives them. Without those two letters after their name, they become powerless.

So come on people you voted to Leave the EU so show these treacherous MPs that you mean business.



Graham Charles Lear

What is life without a little controversy in it? Quite boring and sterile would be my answer.